It’s long been understood that Microsoft would continue to produce updates for Windows XP after support officially ends on April 8, 2014 – for anyone willing to pay. What hasn’t been known for certain is whether anyone would actually pay.

Now, as reported by Ars Technica, the British and Dutch governments have apparently decided to delay upgrading thousands of Windows XP computers, and have contracted with Microsoft to continue supporting Windows XP.

This raises some interesting possibilities. It seems likely that at least one person who works in the British government will find a way to leak new Windows XP security updates to the rest of the world. Microsoft may have measures in place to prevent this, but people are inventive, and would probably find workarounds. Then again, would you trust a supposedly-official update that you obtained from a shady download site? One can imagine Microsoft relenting, and making the updates available to everyone, just to stop the spread of tainted updates.

Another possible scenario is that a flood of hacks, attacks and malware, all based on previously unknown Windows XP vulnerabilities, have such a huge impact on the Internet, that again Microsoft relents and makes updates available to everyone.

If Microsoft does give in and continue making updates available for everyone, what does that mean for the British and Dutch governments? Will they demand refunds from Microsoft? Each has apparently paid many millions of dollars for the updates, so it would be completely reasonable to want it back if the updates became available for free.

This is going to get interesting…

Update 2014Apr15: Add the US Internal Revenue Service to the list of organizations paying Microsoft for Windows XP support and patches.

Update 2014Apr21: Apparently Microsoft just reduced the price tag for Windows XP patches. Presumably they looked at the current Windows XP usage numbers and decided it’s less important to gouge corporate clients than it is to make sure Windows XP systems are patched.